The Geography of a U.S.-China War
Conflict over Taiwan would promote escalation in ways U.S.-Soviet tensions in Europe never did.
Conflict over Taiwan would promote escalation in ways U.S.-Soviet tensions in Europe never did.
Persisting tensions between the United States and China have led observers to warn of a new Cold War. Although meant to convey alarm, the comparison contains a measure of reassurance. Despite ferocious competition and recurring crises, the Cold War was a period of unprecedented peace between the superpowers. If the analogy holds, U.S.-China rivalry will dominate international politics in the coming decades, but a hot war will be unlikely.
Key features that prevented a major war between the Cold War superpowers are also present today. The fear of nuclear annihilation that instilled caution in Moscow and Washington then should stay the hands of Chinese and U.S. leaders now. With China’s immense growth, the international system is arguably returning to a bipolar distribution of power on par with the Cold War, and bipolar systems are more stable than multipolar ones.
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